Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Employment Growth
Across North Carolina Counties
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
State Government
Employment Growth
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of state government employment growth across all of North Carolina's 100 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this North Carolina Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the state government employment growth of North Carolina's 100 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
State Government
Employment Growth
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
This figure displays the 100 counties of North Carolina as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual state government employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the state government employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term state government employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.22%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.22% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.22%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 20 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 72 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 46 counties whose most recent (2022) state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-1.33%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 46 counties whose state government employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 100 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.22% over 2010-2022 and -1.33% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.22%) and near-term (-1.33%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.22%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the North Carolina average (-1.33%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.22%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-1.33%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.22%) and near-term (-1.33%).
   
 
Summary of North Carolina's 100 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-1.33%)
Above
(-1.33%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-0.22%)
4
16
20
Below
(-0.22%)
42
30
72
 
46
46
92
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the North Carolina counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed North Carolina's average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.22%) as well as near-term (2022 = -1.33%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of North Carolina's 100 counties, 16 (16%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 North Carolina counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.22%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -1.33%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 4 (4%) of North Carolina's 100 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
This figure shows the distribution of the 30 North Carolina counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.22%), while they outpaced North Carolina's average near-term (2022 = -1.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of North Carolina's 100 counties, 30% (30) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = -0.22%
2022 = -1.33%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 42 North Carolina counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.22%) as well as near-term (2022 = -1.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
42% of North Carolina's counties, 42 of 100, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
North Carolina
State Government Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
11
0.06
 
13
2.97
798
 
20
-0.19
 
14
2.94
3,998
 
15
-0.08
 
28
1.14
531
 
3
3.32
 
30
0.83
121
 
4
2.00
 
3
9.45
5,258
 
18
-0.17
 
15
2.86
790
 
6
1.09
 
37
0.06
3,295
 
8
0.85
 
23
2.01
962
 
1
5.99
 
35
0.20
1,519
 
7
0.97
 
16
2.78
6,241
 
17
-0.16
 
45
-1.12
9,674
 
2
4.00
 
2
10.86
194
 
16
-0.16
 
27
1.18
685
 
19
-0.18
 
17
2.65
116
 
14
-0.08
 
19
2.35
1,044
 
9
0.70
 
19
2.35
87
Slipping Counties
 
13
0.02
 
55
-1.91
9,675
 
12
0.03
 
49
-1.38
9,459
 
5
1.35
 
68
-5.49
620
 
10
0.15
 
57
-2.10
43,831
Gaining Counties
 
69
-2.46
 
48
-1.32
75
 
82
-3.51
 
47
-1.23
160
 
36
-1.09
 
21
2.31
710
 
53
-1.64
 
33
0.41
985
 
48
-1.34
 
12
3.39
977
 
46
-1.24
 
38
0.00
394
 
51
-1.47
 
34
0.29
346
 
30
-0.87
 
5
4.48
140
 
57
-1.77
 
9
3.60
835
 
23
-0.26
 
44
-1.09
1,452
 
49
-1.36
 
25
1.75
1,045
 
74
-2.82
 
29
1.12
450
 
84
-3.64
 
36
0.16
608
 
47
-1.27
 
42
-0.64
1,240
 
90
-5.75
 
38
0.00
37
 
50
-1.43
 
38
0.00
31
 
77
-3.06
 
6
4.21
322
 
28
-0.66
 
22
2.26
994
 
65
-2.35
 
10
3.57
87
 
35
-1.08
 
43
-1.07
463
 
71
-2.66
 
24
1.77
288
 
22
-0.25
 
18
2.52
1,098
 
33
-1.05
 
41
-0.44
1,136
 
76
-2.95
 
4
4.84
65
 
70
-2.59
 
26
1.48
342
 
32
-1.05
 
7
4.09
1,348
 
27
-0.55
 
31
0.71
2,543
 
54
-1.69
 
46
-1.14
608
 
26
-0.43
 
32
0.65
154
 
85
-3.69
 
1
13.39
127
Lagging Counties
 
38
-1.12
 
75
-6.50
1,022
 
83
-3.53
 
82
-8.05
674
 
78
-3.10
 
86
-11.15
454
 
25
-0.35
 
71
-5.81
503
 
39
-1.12
 
56
-1.95
4,113
 
61
-1.88
 
81
-7.98
3,449
 
21
-0.25
 
60
-2.78
804
 
79
-3.22
 
87
-11.31
345
 
29
-0.78
 
59
-2.69
1,448
 
81
-3.50
 
90
-12.50
28
 
60
-1.86
 
72
-5.97
1,181
 
31
-0.93
 
52
-1.56
4,225
 
87
-3.92
 
88
-11.78
262
 
43
-1.19
 
91
-13.17
3,448
 
80
-3.29
 
84
-9.17
713
 
72
-2.68
 
79
-7.26
613
 
64
-2.34
 
54
-1.88
573
 
75
-2.90
 
89
-12.25
222
 
40
-1.14
 
53
-1.59
1,177
 
91
-6.90
 
76
-6.67
42
 
63
-2.03
 
78
-7.11
1,974
 
55
-1.70
 
73
-6.15
244
 
24
-0.32
 
63
-3.00
840
 
44
-1.22
 
74
-6.45
203
 
62
-2.00
 
80
-7.59
511
 
92
-10.56
 
96
-41.18
70
 
45
-1.24
 
83
-8.81
321
 
67
-2.38
 
65
-3.39
1,569
 
68
-2.46
 
92
-14.39
345
 
73
-2.70
 
61
-2.82
69
 
37
-1.10
 
67
-5.11
872
 
41
-1.14
 
69
-5.51
1,544
 
34
-1.05
 
51
-1.48
733
 
52
-1.62
 
50
-1.40
775
 
42
-1.18
 
58
-2.31
1,013
 
58
-1.83
 
62
-2.94
791
 
88
-4.50
 
77
-6.94
67
 
86
-3.72
 
64
-3.15
584
 
89
-5.22
 
94
-25.14
265
 
59
-1.84
 
85
-9.35
2,900
 
66
-2.37
 
70
-5.54
1,159
 
56
-1.77
 
66
-4.59
104
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
438
 
U
U
 
93
-15.10
371
 
U
U
 
10
3.57
29
 
U
U
 
8
4.00
104
 
U
U
 
S
S
936
 
U
U
 
95
-29.19
131
 
U
U
 
S
S
35,434
 
U
U
 
S
S
4,867
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.22
 
-1.33
202,517
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.09
 
-0.04
5,279,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520310_LSGL
 
   
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