Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Educational Services Employment Growth
Across North Carolina Counties
Educational Services
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Educational Services
Employment Growth
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of educational services employment growth across all of North Carolina's 100 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this North Carolina Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the educational services employment growth of North Carolina's 100 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Educational Services
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Educational Services
Employment Growth
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
This figure displays the 100 counties of North Carolina as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual educational services employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the educational services employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term educational services employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.86%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.86% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual educational services employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.86%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 29 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 24 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 29 counties whose most recent (2022) educational services employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (6.20%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 24 counties whose educational services employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 100 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.86% over 2010-2022 and 6.20% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual educational services employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.86%) and near-term (6.20%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual educational services employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.86%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the North Carolina average (6.20%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual educational services employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.86%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (6.20%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual educational services employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.86%) and near-term (6.20%).
   
 
Summary of North Carolina's 100 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(6.20%)
Above
(6.20%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.86%)
12
17
29
Below
(1.86%)
12
12
24
 
24
29
53
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the North Carolina counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed North Carolina's average annual educational services employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.86%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.20%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual educational services employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of North Carolina's 100 counties, 17 (17%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 12 North Carolina counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual educational services employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.86%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 6.20%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual educational services employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 12 (12%) of North Carolina's 100 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
This figure shows the distribution of the 12 North Carolina counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual educational services employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.86%), while they outpaced North Carolina's average near-term (2022 = 6.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual educational services employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of North Carolina's 100 counties, only 12% (12) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
North Carolina:
2010-2022 = 1.86%
2022 = 6.20%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 12 North Carolina counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual educational services employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.86%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual educational services employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
12% of North Carolina's counties, 12 of 100, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
North Carolina
Educational Services Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
9
4.81
 
35
7.14
90
 
13
4.04
 
17
10.18
779
 
11
4.36
 
14
10.41
5,028
 
15
3.78
 
33
7.17
1,869
 
7
5.16
 
9
11.42
439
 
5
6.25
 
13
10.61
636
 
24
2.69
 
6
13.77
851
 
1
8.18
 
20
9.83
1,184
 
18
3.46
 
24
9.55
436
 
23
2.76
 
29
7.72
19,965
 
3
6.33
 
3
17.48
1,297
 
16
3.61
 
27
9.23
2,686
 
10
4.76
 
23
9.56
1,352
 
21
2.85
 
11
11.12
3,007
 
26
2.34
 
37
7.05
1,883
 
8
5.11
 
1
36.88
193
 
19
2.99
 
31
7.41
20,505
Slipping Counties
 
12
4.07
 
60
3.85
864
 
20
2.95
 
47
5.56
190
 
17
3.57
 
46
5.88
918
 
28
2.23
 
63
3.14
28,630
 
4
6.31
 
51
5.48
77
 
2
7.18
 
44
5.94
339
 
22
2.76
 
49
5.49
1,499
 
14
3.81
 
66
2.78
481
 
29
2.14
 
66
2.78
148
 
27
2.33
 
71
1.10
367
 
25
2.67
 
65
2.78
702
 
6
5.81
 
57
4.45
3,214
Gaining Counties
 
37
0.94
 
7
12.07
260
 
35
1.07
 
38
6.72
270
 
50
-1.60
 
10
11.35
157
 
33
1.57
 
32
7.19
3,577
 
52
-1.75
 
40
6.36
234
 
34
1.43
 
8
11.70
210
 
51
-1.73
 
41
6.25
187
 
32
1.78
 
30
7.60
467
 
46
-0.51
 
18
10.15
434
 
43
0.28
 
34
7.15
1,454
 
45
-0.30
 
25
9.42
209
 
30
1.85
 
26
9.24
473
Lagging Counties
 
36
1.06
 
58
4.13
3,253
 
41
0.45
 
47
5.56
209
 
38
0.77
 
61
3.78
1,374
 
49
-1.44
 
54
5.32
9,891
 
31
1.84
 
52
5.37
1,668
 
42
0.31
 
62
3.20
8,040
 
47
-0.88
 
70
2.14
860
 
44
0.13
 
53
5.37
373
 
40
0.52
 
56
4.74
287
 
48
-1.04
 
59
4.07
512
 
53
-3.55
 
68
2.65
1,045
 
39
0.69
 
74
-2.58
794
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
137
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
36
7.08
121
 
U
U
 
21
9.68
34
 
U
U
 
S
S
38
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
73
-1.92
1,228
 
U
U
 
75
-15.58
271
 
U
U
 
4
14.79
163
 
U
U
 
21
9.68
136
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
64
3.13
561
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
19
10.00
11
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
2
18.42
2,449
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
14
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
15
10.28
440
 
U
U
 
28
8.96
146
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
12
10.77
329
 
U
U
 
39
6.67
32
 
U
U
 
43
5.94
107
 
U
U
 
5
14.29
104
 
U
U
 
42
6.04
316
 
U
U
 
S
S
404
 
U
U
 
45
5.93
143
 
U
U
 
50
5.49
173
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
55
5.08
62
 
U
U
 
72
0.00
6
 
U
U
 
69
2.51
245
 
U
U
 
16
10.23
97
 
U
U
 
S
S
104
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.86
 
6.20
146,389
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.65
 
6.24
4,885,700
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_511500_LSGL
 
   
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