Wilmington MSA vs. North Carolina Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Wilmington MSA: 2022 Population = 300,658 2022 Percent of State = 0.10% North Carolina: 2022 Population = 10,698,973 2022 Percent of U.S. = 3.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Wilmington MSA with comparisons to North Carolina and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Wilmington MSA vs. North Carolina's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks the Wilmington MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Wilmington MSA's population rose from 99,226 in 1969 to 300,658 in 2022, for a net gain of 201,432, or 203.00%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces North Carolina's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, North Carolina's population rose from 5,031,000 in 1969 to 10,698,973 in 2022, for a net gain of 5,667,973, or 112.66%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Wilmington MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with North Carolina, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Wilmington MSA's overall population growth was 203.00% over 1969-2022 outpaced North Carolina's increase of 112.66%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the North Carolina Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of the Wilmington MSA is to trace its individual percentage contributions to North Carolina's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than North Carolina's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Wilmington MSA's population totaled 1.97% of North Carolina's population, while in 2022 it totaled 2.81% thereby yielding a +0.84% share-shift.
Wilmington MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of the Wilmington MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Wilmington MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 2.12% over 1970-2022. The Wilmington MSA recorded its highest growth in 1972 (4.23%) and posted its lowest growth in 1978 (-0.44%). In 2022, the Wilmington MSA's population grew by 2.61% Wilmington MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Wilmington MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Wilmington MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 2.20%. It averaged 1.72% during the 1980s, 3.15% throughout the 1990s, 2.37% in the 2000s, 1.22% in the 2010s, 1.90% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Wilmington MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for North Carolina and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Wilmington MSA's average annual population growth surpassed North Carolina's average in the 1970s (2.20% vs. 1.44%), surpassed North Carolina's average during the 1980s (1.72% vs. 1.24%), exceeded North Carolina's average in the 1990s (3.15% vs. 1.93%), outperformed North Carolina's average in the 2000s (2.37% vs. 1.74%), led North Carolina's average during the 2010s (1.22% vs. 0.93%), and outpaced North Carolina's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.90% vs. 1.04%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Wilmington MSA exceeded the nation in the 1970s (2.20% vs. 1.10%), recorded above the nation throughout the 1980s (1.72% vs. 0.95%), topped the nation over the 1990s (3.15% vs. 1.23%), topped the nation throughout the 2000s (2.37% vs. 0.95%), recorded above the nation throughout the 2010s (1.22% vs. 0.74%), and outperformed the nation over 2020-2022 (1.90% vs. 0.31%).
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