Forsyth County vs. North Carolina Comparative Trends Report: Population, 1969-2022 Briefing Report Outline: Page 1 of 13 Introduction Forsyth County: 2022 Population = 389,157 2022 Percent of State = 3.64% North Carolina: 2022 Population = 10,698,973 2022 Percent of U.S. = 3.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Forsyth County with comparisons to North Carolina and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Forsyth County vs. North Carolina's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Page 2 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Forsyth County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Forsyth County's population rose from 210,470 in 1969 to 389,157 in 2022, for a net gain of 178,687, or 84.90%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 3 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces North Carolina's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, North Carolina's population rose from 5,031,000 in 1969 to 10,698,973 in 2022, for a net gain of 5,667,973, or 112.66%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 4 of 13 Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Forsyth County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with North Carolina, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Forsyth County's overall population growth was 84.90% over 1969-2022 trailed North Carolina's increase of 112.66%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%. Page 5 of 13 Population as a Percent of the North Carolina Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Forsyth County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to North Carolina's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than North Carolina's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Forsyth County's population totaled 4.18% of North Carolina's population, while in 2022 it comprised 3.64% thereby yielding a -0.55% share-shift.
Page 6 of 13 Forsyth County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Forsyth County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Forsyth County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.17% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1970 (2.47%) and posted its lowest growth in 1989 (0.48%). In 2022, Forsyth County's population grew by 0.77% Page 7 of 13 Forsyth County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Forsyth County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Forsyth County's annual population growth rate averaged 1.40%. It averaged 0.91% throughout the 1980s, 1.37% in the 1990s, 1.39% in the 2000s, 0.90% throughout the 2010s, 0.70% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Page 8 of 13 Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Forsyth County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for North Carolina and the nation. As the chart reveals, Forsyth County's average annual population growth trailed North Carolina's average throughout the 1970s (1.40% vs. 1.44%), lagged North Carolina's average throughout the 1980s (0.91% vs. 1.24%), lagged North Carolina's average in the 1990s (1.37% vs. 1.93%), fell below North Carolina's average during the 2000s (1.39% vs. 1.74%), amounted to less than North Carolina's average throughout the 2010s (0.90% vs. 0.93%), and amounted to less than North Carolina's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.70% vs. 1.04%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Forsyth County exceeded the nation throughout the 1970s (1.40% vs. 1.10%), fell under the nation during the 1980s (0.91% vs. 0.95%), outperformed the nation over the 1990s (1.37% vs. 1.23%), outgained the nation in the 2000s (1.39% vs. 0.95%), topped the nation throughout the 2010s (0.90% vs. 0.74%), and recorded above the nation over 2020-2022 (0.70% vs. 0.31%). Page 9 of 13
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